I think she brought up some good points, but in the end, I think she's wrong. I don't mean that she is gilding the lily. I mean that she doesn't see the party.
She makes the (very valid) point that Amazon courted indies because they wanted to put pressure on the big six. She's right in saying that the legal system paid off for Amazon, forcing the big six to price the way we do, and endangering our little corner of sales. She's right when she points out how Amazon is getting draconian about their dominance of e-books, and they're caring less about the indies.
Honestly, though, I think she's missing a key point. That key point is "dominance".
Right now, yes, Amazon is the 800lb. gorilla. It is the de facto landing site for most e-books. It has branched out to other countries. It has tried to buy exclusivity to starve out competitors. But here's the thing.
It can't grow that way.
The Kindle Fire will stimulate Amazon, and it will see a flush of new sales in both hardware and e-books. But Amazon will not keep its dominance by selling more devices. In a few years, there will be a lighter, faster version, but it won't get them more sales. In fact, I predict that they will stagnate due to the very actions that worry indies right now.
Consider those draconian measures. Think about how you felt when they announced KDP Select, or when they told you that, if you want to sell in India, you either join KDP Select, or you take a 43% cut in royalties. Consider what they told third parties about advertising and free books. Now, rather than worrying about how we'll get by with Amazon's new measures, ask yourself how Amazon will get by without us.
As an analogy, consider Hollywood. Look at the top ten grossing movies from the past year, and ask yourself what they have in common. The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, The Hunger Games… They are all heavy with visual effects. In an industry that doesn't really care about story, they've learned that visual effects can sell a movie. So you would think that Hollywood would want to support them as much as they could.
Sadly, that is not the case. The Oscar winning team that brought us "Life of Pi" has recently filed for bankruptcy protection. When Ang Lee gave his acceptance speech, he completely failed to acknowledge them. Later, when he talked about them, he only said that he wished it could be cheaper.
When the team tried to talk about the bankruptcy at the Oscars, they were played off with Jaws music, and cutting off their microphone. What followed was a firestorm of protests from VFX teams. This has been coming for a while, but it is bubbling over with people saying, "Do you guys really want a dude in green body paint for the avengers 2?" Apparently, many of the companies have been dealing with problems where the producers make timeline demands, the teams work overtime to hit their deadlines, and then the deadlines are moved up to avoid paying bonuses for on-time work.
Hollywood seems to be treating this like the writer's strike, which is understandable. In both situations, they were faced with a creative group that they underbid until it they protested. However, there is one big difference between writers and VFX groups. That difference is the movie "Skyline".
You probably didn't notice the movie, and that's understandable. It didn't do too well in the box office, and was pretty universally panned. So what makes this movie so important? It was made by a VFX company.
Here's a company that totally bypassed the Hollywood structure. They basically produced a ten-million-dollar commercial for the company. They may have wanted the film to be good, but it wasn't a real necessity. They made a profitable indie movie.
Hollywood may try to play "Chicken" with VFX companies the way they did with the writers, but in reality, they can't win. Hollywood needs them more than they need Hollywood. There are indie options, and as long as they realize that, Hollywood will have to relent.
So let's look at Amazon again. They needed to get the big six to deal with them, so they supported indie publishers as much as possible, hoping to build dominance in this burgeoning sector. Now they have the big six where they want them, and they don't need to be nice to the indies anymore. Now they can demand what they want, slowly incrementing the requirements and decrementing the opportunities. But in this analogy with Hollywood, we are not the writers. We are the VFX companies. As soon as people say, "Wait a minute. I can sell my e-book just as easily on Smashwords, Gumroad, or IBookstore more freely than I can with Amazon", then they will start to lose us.
When people realize that they can reach more foreign readers, and support more devices, on Smashwords, they will decide that KDP Select is too high a price. When they realize that they can update a version on Gumroad in less time than it took to make the edits, they will want to be there. When they see the dedicated audience on Kobo, IBookstore, and Google Play, they will want desperately to avoid being locked into one distributor.
We're talking about a democratization of booksellers. The sellers have always been out there, but Amazon was always the safest bet for indies. Now that it's flexing its muscles, indies will start looking closer into those options.
Because, in all honesty, Amazon needs us more than we need them.
They just don't know it yet.
Thanks, Brand! Be sure to check him out all over the internet at Twitter, Google+, and his Blog.
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Discount Miracles is a slipstream story of sci-fi and fantasy that lightly treads the edges of Clarke's Third Law. Hoverbikes and giant monsters come together in a story that is a little comedy, a little romance, and a lot of adventure.